The US
Central Intelligence Agency has warned that US counterterrorist operations
around the world may not eliminate the threat of future attacks because they
fail to address the root causes of terrorism, according to new documents.
In an
unusual display of candor, the CIA pointed out that continued instability in
Afghanistan, challenges facing Saudi rulers and the festering
Israeli-Palestinian conflict were likely to fuel radicalism in the Muslim world.
The
grim assessment was made in a series of written answers to questions posed by
members of the US Congress last April that were released to the general public
on Tuesday.
It is
likely to reinforce the emerging view that the CIA may have had a falling out
with some members of the administration of President George W. Bush on key
foreign policy issues.
Earlier this month, CIA Director George Tenet caused a stir here by
predicting that, if cornered, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was more likely to
resort to weapons of destruction -- the very outcome a proposed US invasion of
Iraq is meant to ward off.
But as
the administration continued to flesh out plans to use Iraqi dissidents in
toppling the Baghdad government, the CIA cautioned in its answers to lawmakers
that the Iraqi army remains "capable of defeating more poorly armed internal
opposition groups."
As for
hopes that members of the Iraqi elite will revolt against Hussein as soon as the
United States launches an invasion, the agency pointed out that senior Iraqi
officials "view their fortunes as tied to Saddam and their allegiance is
probably bolstered by the regime's decade long propaganda campaign against UN
sanctions and the West."
The
CIA has been at the forefront of the war on terror launched by Bush in the wake
of the September 11, 2001, attacks blamed on Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda
network.
But as
it ferreted out terrorist cells, the agency appeared to sound a pessimistic note
about the general direction of the effort.
"While
we are striking major blows against al-Qaeda -- the preeminent global terrorist
threat, the underlying causes that drive terrorists will persist," the CIA said.
"Several troublesome global trends -- especially the growing
demographic youth bulge in developing nations whose economic systems and
political ideologies are under enormous stress -- will fuel the rise of more
disaffected groups willing to use violence to address their perceived
grievances," it added.
More
than 1,300 Islamic radicals suspected of association with al-Qaeda have been
arrested in over 70 countries since the beginning of the war on terror,
according to US officials.
These
successes notwithstanding, the CIA expressed doubt about the US ability to
stabilize Afghanistan and choke off terrorist finances any time soon.
It
said the remnants of the Taliban and al-Qaeda were "well-placed to co-opt local
or tribal leaders and use them to re-establish a base from which to challenge"
the central Afghan government.
As for
the terrorists' financial base, CIA officials warned it was broader that
previously described and concluded: "we will never be able to stop all terrorist
money flows."
With
violence raging in the Middle East, Bush is also pushing for leadership change
in the Palestinian Authority, accusing its leader, Yasser Arafat, of failing the
peaceful aspirations of his own people.
But
according to the CIA, Arafat's departure will have quite the opposite effect.
It
said a successor to Arafat "will have neither the power base nor the leadership
qualities necessary to wield full authority."
"Challenged to consolidate control and unable to match Arafat's ability
to unite Palestinians in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Diaspora, a new
leadership would be more beholden to the sentiment of the Palestinian "street"
and less likely to show moderation toward a Palestinian-Israeli peace process,"
the CIA warned.